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Welcome to the Divisional Round breakdown for the weekend's offerings over at the FanDuel Sportsbook. We're treated to a great four-game slate that kicks off Saturday afternoon at Lambeau Field with the Packers hosting the Rams. From there, Buffalo-Baltimore is the Saturday nightcap before Cleveland and Kansas City take center stage Sunday afternoon and a divisional rematch between two legendary quarterbacks rounds out the weekend when the Saints host the Buccaneers.
Below you'll find write-ups of my favorite props and plays for this weekend's action and one prop that covers the entire postseason.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 102.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -112
Betting against Kamara always feels risky. He's one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. However, this is a bad matchup for him and we have two games of sample that paint a pessimistic picture of how he will fare on Sunday. Kamara had 12 carries for 16 yards and five catches for 51 – a total of 67 yards – against Tampa Bay in the opener and followed that up with nine carries for 40 yards and five catches for nine yards.
Of course, this is a whole new ballgame in the playoffs, but the Buccaneers are still stout against opposing running backs. They just allowed Washington running backs to 48 total yards on 20 total touches. That's not a clean 1:1 comp to what Kamara brings to the table, though it's worth noting.
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The Saints' lack of downfield passing game effectively shrinks the field for the defense, and the Bucs seem to have the right game plan to slow Kamara. I expect this to be a sweat as Kamara should perform better than he did in the previous two outings, but I still defer to the Buccaneer defense slowing the star running back just enough to keep him under that yardage total.
Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers Money Line and OVER 52.0 +344
The first matchup went over this number and the second one would have if the Buccaneers showed any sort of pulse on offense. I'd be more inclined to go with the under if the Buccaneers hadn't turned a corner on offense down the stretch. The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown is clicking at the right time and I expect Rob Gronkowski to be more involved Sunday as he won't be staying in to block the edge the way he did in Washington.
As for the Saints offense, I have my doubts about Brees and the lack of speed in the receiving corps, but I can't argue with Sean Payton's success against the Buccaneers this season, so New Orleans should be able to pull its weight as far as getting us to the total.
The Buccaneers moneyline play is the tricky part of this equation. The Saints are a rock-solid team with just two home losses – both to the No.1 seeds in their respective conferences – this season. Still, Tom Brady is playing better than Drew Brees at this stage and he has more weapons around him. I'm not expecting a Roethlisberger-esque meltdown from Brees in this spot, but he's operating with a very thin margin for error with his diminishing physical tools and a shallow group of skill players around him outside of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. In the end, I expect Brady to outduel Brees and the Buccaneers defense to do just enough to come away with the win Sunday.
Devin Singletary Over 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -112
This will be a popular prop Saturday, and with good reason. Zack Moss is out with an ankle injury, so Singletary is set up to have the bulk of the snaps out of the Buffalo backfield. We have some precedent for Singletary performing well in Moss' absence, too. In Week 3 through Week 5, Singletary went over 66.5 yards from scrimmage twice, and the one time he fell short was in the bizarre Tuesday game in Tennessee.
I'd be leery of just firing on Singletary's rushing yardage prop (46.5), and it's not because of how Baltimore performed against Derrick Henry in the Wild Card round. He'll push for double-digit carries but asking him to average his customary 4.4 YPC might be a bit much. Adding the pass-catching work gives some cushion as he saw five-or-more targets in two of the three games without Moss. 66.5 yards from scrimmage is more than attainable for Singletary on Saturday given his expected role and snap share.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Anytime TD Scorer +370
Much has been made of the Davante Adams-Jalen Ramsey matchup for Saturday's game, and while I still expect Adams to play well in spite of Ramsey's blanket coverage, Green Bay is going to have to explore its other options in the passing game. Valdes-Scantling is of course a risky player to back and the long odds support that, but his big-play potential is undeniable. The 53.2 percent catch rate and the 9.7 percent drop rate are reasons for concern. However, the air yardage (70.0 per game), aDOT (18.1 yards, 99th percentile) smooth over those concerns as it's clear that he is a downfield specialist. 10 of his 33 receptions went 20-or-more yards and six of them went for 40-or-more yards.
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My esteemed colleague Mario Puig astutely pointed out in his Corner Report article, the Rams' corner personnel is great but it has some elements that put them at a disadvantage against big, fast receivers. Valdes-Scantling (6-foot-4 with 4.37 speed) drawing a matchup against either Troy Hill (5-foot-11 with 4.55 speed) or Darious Williams (5-foot-9) would give him the advantage more often than not. Adams' matchup with Ramsey should steer more targets towards MVS, and he only needs to connect on one deep shot for this prop to hit. It's +370 and things are set up for Valdes-Scantling to have a real chance at finding paydirt with everything else going on in this matchup. For what it's worth, this prop was +460 on Friday afternoon.
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Playoff Prop: Aaron Rodgers Most Playoff Passing Yards +800
Rehashing a pick from last week with different odds as Rodgers is now at +800 instead of +1000. Josh Allen (+230) and Tom Brady (+250) are the odds-on favorites right now and it makes sense. Allen threw for 324 yards in the Super Wildcard round and Brady threw for 381. The question now becomes how much are you expecting either the Bills or Buccaneers to make a deep run? The Bills are slim favorites over the Ravens this weekend, so it's plausible that Allen gets two more games worth of passing yards. The Buccaneers are road underdogs against a Saints team that has beaten them twice already. As you can tell, I think the Bucs find a way Sunday, so that should be two more games for Brady at minimum.
So this boils down to Rodgers playing three games and performing at the elite level at which he played during the season. Again, the basis of this bet is expecting the Packers to make it to Super Bowl Sunday. That's not a given, of course, but the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC runs through Lambeau and the Rams are too shorthanded at quarterback to pull off the upset, in my opinion. The Rams have the best defense left in the playoffs, so assuming Rodgers gets past them, he'll have more favorable scripts for the rest of the postseason.
To find this bet, navigate to the NFL section on the FanDuel Sportsbook and then go to the 'Playoff Props' section in the navigation bar under NFL.