You may have heard the term “parlay” in reference to someone combining one asset with another to achieve success. “I bought a new propane grill, and combined with my shopping skills I parlayed that into a great family cookout.”
At the casino or on a sports book, to parlay means something similar. Easily the most popular of all exotic wagers in sports betting, a parlay (or “combo”) is a collection of 2 or more sides or totals that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to cash in.
The total odds of your parlay are determined by the individual odds of your bets. It does become a more straight forward moneyline parlay calculator if betting on the spread or totals however as they are fixed odds. Otherwise known as ‘Pick em’ markets. Find out your 12 team parlay odds or 15 team parlay odds with our free parlay calculator.
- Convert the odds for each game of the parlay into decimal format like above. A three-game parlay with American odds of +140, -110 and -160 would have decimal odds of 2.4, 1.909 and 1.625. Multiply all three to get the decimal odds for the entire parlay, like so: 2.4 X 1.909 X 1.625 = 7.44.
- So if you’re parlaying three point spreads at -110 — -110 converted to decimal odds is 1.91 — your formula looks like: 1.91 x 1.91 x 1.91 = 6.97 6.97 – 1 = 5.97 In American odds, 6.97 is +597, meaning this parlay pays nearly 6-1.
MLB, NFL and NBA Parlay Rules
Most bettors love the idea of having a chance at a big payoff from a small wager. But parlays are hard to win, and come with a strict set of rules. Let’s look at some of the ins and outs.
Bookies offer this category of wager to lure the gambler into a tough situation. For instance, on a 4-team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. You lose in either case. However, if you’d placed 4 individual bets and won 3 while losing 1, you would make a decent chunk of change. But you would have saved yourself a lot of money by betting the combo instead of placing 4 individual bets if you went 0-4.
“Correlated” outcomes are strictly against the rules, which means you cannot benefit from results that are related to one another. For instance, a finesse passing team might be pitted against a strong defensive unit in the Super Bowl. If you pick the latter squad, you cannot place a combo bet on the “under,” since that outcome is more likely to occur if the strong defense controls the contest.
Below is a table that lists the chances of hitting a combo if all wagers are “pick’em,” or evenly-matched “coin flip” scenarios – what sports books give you for each ratio, and the chance of a winner if you hit 55%. Obviously, if you’re a 55% handicapper, then there are good deals in the offing. This table shows the odds for 2-team combos all the way up to 11 teams.
| # of Teams | Your chances at 50% | Payout in Vegas | Your chances at 55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 2.3/1 |
| 3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 5.0/1 |
| 4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 9.9/1 |
| 5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 18.9/1 |
| 6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.1/1 |
| 7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 64.7/1 |
| 8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 118.4/1 |
| 9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 216.1/1 |
| 10 | 1,023/1 | 700/1 | 393.8/1 |
| 11 | 2,047/1 | 1,200/1 | 716.8/1 |
As you can see, for the normal bettor who only hits on 50% of their wagers, trying for a 4-0 (or 3-0, or 2-0) record on the same day is a bad idea. It gets worse the more wagers you add. A 2-teamer isn’t terrible because you expect to hit 1 out of each 3 you bet, and you get rewarded 2.6 to 1. A 3-teamer isn’t that bad either because your expected chances are 7-1, while you get paid 6-1.
Avoiding “Sucker” Bets On Sports Book Parlays
Where you really see the biggest sucker bets are the 4-team combos. These wagers only work 1 out of every 15 times, yet you only get paid 10-1. Picking 8 winners and 0 losers only scores a hit once in every 255 times, but you only get paid 150-1 if successful. The 11-team parlay hits 1 out of every 2,047 times, and the payout is based on only just over 50% of that ratio.
Most of the general betting public doesn’t realize that 55% is an excellent winning percentage when it comes to sports betting. But the table also illustrates that if you pick 55% victorious teams/athletes, then every single combo listed is a profitable wager over the long term. The chances of hitting an 11-teamer drop from 2,047-1 to 716.8-1 when you pick 55%. Considering you get paid out 1,200-1, it actually isn’t a bad deal for the 55% handicappers.
The Lines Don’t Always Favor Betting Parlays
In conclusion, I almost never recommend betting parlays for newer cash players. There are times when I’ll put out a 2-team combo on a football game if 2 favorites are being under-valued, but only a of couple times a year. Your best move is to stick to straight bets in football and basketball with the point spreads and totals.
Sometimes, conference vs conference match-ups are a good opportunity for a successful combo wager if 1 of the 2 conferences is under-valued. For instance, ACC football went 4-0 vs the SEC on a Saturday in 2014 – nobody expected that except a few savvy gamblers. Georgia Tech over Georgia was just one of the upsets that took place on that November day as bookies lost out to the ever-popular SEC hype train driving the lines. Another opportunity for this kind of combo bet occurs during early-season conference vs conference “challenge” tourneys in college basketball.
I know it’s tempting to try and strike it rich on a big “trifecta,” but the chances are less in your favor as the number of picks goes up. So have fun, but proceed with caution!
The total odds for a parlay is simply the product of the decimal prices for each market in the parlay:
(Price 1) * (Price 2) * ….. (Price n)
n = number of bets in the parlay
Example
If you were to have a three-team parlay with the prices 1.45, 1.20 and 1.55 the total odds for the parlay would be 1.45 * 1.20 * 1.55 = 2.70
Also see:
How To Convert Fractional Odds To Decimal , How To Convert American Odds To Decimal, and What Is A Parlay?
American Odds Parlay Formula
Calculate the payout of your parlay but skip the math using our simple parlay calculator.